Monday, June 9, 2014

Channel Technical Analysis Screener $NS $PRE $HPP $NOG $RGS

Another screen to look for are channel up and down trends. Below are five stocks in channels that are either at buy points now or almost at buy points. My personal favorites: Regis Corp and Northern Oil & Gas.

Nustar Energy L.P ($NS) - Upward channel, touched the top and currently having a down day. Looks to be a short until the bottom of channel is hit (confirmed by overbought Stochastics)

Partnerre LTD ($PRE) - Double whammy here: Upward channel with some significant resistance from the last couple years broken through last week. If it breaks above channel, its a definite buy, otherwise a short first down to the resistance-turned-support

Hudson Pacific Properties ($HPP) - Had a huge day as soon as I started watching it for a potential break above resistance (Missed it!), but it has now stalled at the upper bounds of its channel.

Northen Oil & Gas ($NOS) - Part 1 of my favorite channels. Downward channel formed since mid 2013. Simultaneously a trendline since 2014 that finally intersects upper bounds of the downward channel. There is going to be a big move here in one direction, for now its the waiting game.

Regis Corp ($RGS) - Part 2 of my favorite channels. Unlike Hudson Pacific, this one I have not missed the break of resistance. It has already broken above its symmetrical triangle formation and showed strength in it's follow-up on subsequent days after the break.

Note: All Stock Charts are from Aug 2013 to Present Day

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Multiple Top Technical Analysis Screener - Stocks to Watch $RLD $NXPI $CBM $ESC

Here are some stocks I am watching for breakout (Own Long) or resistance rejection (Put Options). Stocks must have over 200,000 average volume daily as well as have a stock price >$10. Everyone has different opinions on this, but I only like trading liquid stocks that are not volatile (A la $PLUG, $RSH etc.)

Emeritus Corp - Trying to break through the $32 mark for the 6th time. Otherwise looks like an easy short down to $30

NXP SemiConductors - Trying to break through $62.50 yet again. Recently dropped out of its upward channel.

Cambrex Corporation - Bit of a stretch, but could be a triple top and with more weakness a short back to $18 level

RealD Inc - Trying to break through $12 mark AND simultaneously stay in the upward channel. Could be the most explosive of all the stocks.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

The Priceline Group Inc. ($PCLN) Stock Analysis & Trade Ideas

While I have been posting most of my thoughts on my Stocktwits page, it is time to start using my site again. It is a win-win situation! I keep myself accountable to my analysis, and also share my ideas.

My first post in a long time will be on a stock that I am most familiar with, The Priceline Group Inc. ($PCLN). I have posted extensively in the past couple weeks on the volatility in this stock and think that buying Straddles and/or Strangles are the best way to play it. Let’s look at a couple charts below:

Analysis 1: Support, Resistance, Trendlines:

 Daily Chart (September 2013 - May 2014)

1. $1,100-$1,110 is huge support (6 consolidated areas, 5 as support)

2. $1,200 is major resistance (9 consolidated areas, 8 as resistance)

3. The $1,270 area is both support and resistance(4 consolidated areas, 2 as resistance)

4. From March 3rd 2014 to May 12th, Priceline was in a patterned downtrend

Analysis 2: Point Moves

Since September 2013, 8 of the top 10 price moves have come crossing up or down through $1,200.

When $PCLN daily movement touched the $1,265-$1,275 level, within 5 trading days the stock price was +/- > 5% from that day’s close price over 50% of the time.

Lets look at the $1,200 level (+/- 2-3$). Similar to the $1,265-$1,275 level, this resistance area returns at least a 4.8% move in either direction within 5 days 60% of the time. Once 5 trading days have passed from Friday (5/23) and Monday (5/27), this number can jump to 66%.

Analysis 3: Options (Premiums etc.)

This is a lot tougher to package in a pretty graphic, but the Strangle (Different Strike, Same Expiration) is my favorite play for $PCLN, especially in resistance/support areas. $PCLN is a bit of an unusual beast, slightly due to how high the price is, but mostly due to the historical volatility. Even now, 2 days before the May 30 Strikes expire, options are still pricing in a ~21 point move from today's $1,270 close.

For our analysis, we only care about options expiring at least 5 trading days after the initial resistance area move. Using the June 6 Options Table above, options are pricing in a 46 point move, or a 3.6% move from the current point. Referencing our $1,265-$1,275 Analysis above, 7 out of the 9 times this area was hit, the stock price moved more than 3.6%.

Disclosure: Technical Analysis and Analytics have it's flaws. They both look at patterns that happen more often than not, but that still means it is sometimes wrong. When making investment decisions, you should always use your own research and use due diligence prior to making that investment decision.

Monday, June 4, 2012

June 4, 2012 - Update to Market Leaders ($CMG, $AAPL, $PCLN)

$PCLN - Double top and pull back worked to perfection. Priceline came and touched the$680 line briefly before plummeting to $605. Still looks like a $30 more to the downside


$AAPL- Broke above its downward trendline to $581 before falling back below it friday and confirming the move today. Before I said shortable to the 100 day, which still holds true. If below the 100-day, look out below...


$CMG - Chipotle has the most strength of the market leaders. Broke above the downward trend line 2 weeks ago and is just now testing it again. BUT, it has moved below the 100-day MA today so if it continues below the support of the trend line drawn below, LOOK OUT BELOW!

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

May 30, 2012 - IPGP Trade

Last one for me for the day. I wanted to short this back at $54 bounce off resistance but didn't have the guts.

As you can see, the downward resistance line has been hit 6 times now, with the sole breakthrough coming on earnings that was immediately sold. Today hit the resistance and shot back down

For longer term traders, Weekly Chart is below. I see weekly support at 39 and 34.

May 30, 2012 - THLD

Haven't talked about Threshold Pharmaceuticals in a while. Saw this at 5.18 and my limit order didn't go through. I had day traded it after. It is currently trending on Stocktwits under $THLD.

I am only a buyer above the resistance of $7.50 and a seller (short) under the strong support at $6.00

May 30, 2012 - AAPL trade

5 Minute Chart of AAPL above. Hitting a downward trending resistance line. Above it I am going long, below it I am shorting to 568.

Below is the daily chart so you can get a feel for the downward trend line

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

May 23, 2012 - Market Update with a side of Chipotle and Apple

Interestingly enough, today marks one of the first days in the last month where the market leaders ($CMG, $AAPL, $PCLN, $BIDU, $NFLX) are up while the general market ($SPY, $SPX, $DJIA) are down. And I'm not even talking .01%-.1%, the disparity is pretty large.

Looking at Chipotle, it is still a short in my opinion until it crosses this downward trendline resistance. Today it's around 401.39. It has touched this resistance line about 8 times. The next two days will be EXTREMELY important because as of right now, it looks like CMG is getting squashed into a very tight channel between the trendline and the 100-day sma. Where it breaks no one knows...

 Next up, Apple. I am also still bearish on this stock for a couple reasons.
1. Hit its 573 resistance that it formed back when that was the 50-day SMA and bounced right off it.
2. The next support, extremely short term, is the 100-day SMA, which is what I would short it too.
3. 555, while a possible short/resistance line, has been broken multiple times today so I don't see it being a problem as much as one would think.

 Saving the most intriguing for last, Priceline has a couple technical bear signs, so take your pick.
1. I see a near perfect double top formed with highs in mid april and late april. I see 3 bottoms formed and I see an entry exit almost to a tee of what a double top should be. I also see a pullback to the bottom line. The target price point on this would be around $580.
2. If your looking extremely short term, PCLN bounced off the support turned resistance line and could very well be making its way down to the 100-day SMA like AAPL.

Disclosure: Holding June $365 CMG puts

Friday, May 18, 2012

May 18, 2012 - A Look at the Facebook IPO Effect

I wanted to take a look at all of the stocks that are related to Facebook, look at the open price, the price at 11am, price at 11:30am and closing price. Will be updating at each time:

UPDATE: Facebook JUST began trading at 11:30am EST, that is why there is a sudden drop in the related stocks. Fairly surprising to say the least. 

UPDATE: Zynga was halted twice today after losing 10% in less then 5 minutes and subsequently gaining it back on re open.


Stock Name (Symbol)
5/17 Closing Price
5/18 Opening Price
5/18 @ 11:00am EST
5/18 @ 11:35am EST
5/18 Closing Price
Zynga ($ZNGA)
FriendFinder ($FFN)
RenRen ($RENN)
LinkedIn ($LNKD)

Zynga ($ZNGA) -

FriendFinder ($FFN)-


LinkedIn ($LNKD)-