Monday, June 4, 2012

June 4, 2012 - Update to Market Leaders ($CMG, $AAPL, $PCLN)

$PCLN - Double top and pull back worked to perfection. Priceline came and touched the$680 line briefly before plummeting to $605. Still looks like a $30 more to the downside


$AAPL- Broke above its downward trendline to $581 before falling back below it friday and confirming the move today. Before I said shortable to the 100 day, which still holds true. If below the 100-day, look out below...


$CMG - Chipotle has the most strength of the market leaders. Broke above the downward trend line 2 weeks ago and is just now testing it again. BUT, it has moved below the 100-day MA today so if it continues below the support of the trend line drawn below, LOOK OUT BELOW!

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

May 30, 2012 - IPGP Trade

Last one for me for the day. I wanted to short this back at $54 bounce off resistance but didn't have the guts.

As you can see, the downward resistance line has been hit 6 times now, with the sole breakthrough coming on earnings that was immediately sold. Today hit the resistance and shot back down

For longer term traders, Weekly Chart is below. I see weekly support at 39 and 34.

May 30, 2012 - THLD

Haven't talked about Threshold Pharmaceuticals in a while. Saw this at 5.18 and my limit order didn't go through. I had day traded it after. It is currently trending on Stocktwits under $THLD.

I am only a buyer above the resistance of $7.50 and a seller (short) under the strong support at $6.00

May 30, 2012 - AAPL trade

5 Minute Chart of AAPL above. Hitting a downward trending resistance line. Above it I am going long, below it I am shorting to 568.

Below is the daily chart so you can get a feel for the downward trend line

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

May 23, 2012 - Market Update with a side of Chipotle and Apple

Interestingly enough, today marks one of the first days in the last month where the market leaders ($CMG, $AAPL, $PCLN, $BIDU, $NFLX) are up while the general market ($SPY, $SPX, $DJIA) are down. And I'm not even talking .01%-.1%, the disparity is pretty large.

Looking at Chipotle, it is still a short in my opinion until it crosses this downward trendline resistance. Today it's around 401.39. It has touched this resistance line about 8 times. The next two days will be EXTREMELY important because as of right now, it looks like CMG is getting squashed into a very tight channel between the trendline and the 100-day sma. Where it breaks no one knows...

 Next up, Apple. I am also still bearish on this stock for a couple reasons.
1. Hit its 573 resistance that it formed back when that was the 50-day SMA and bounced right off it.
2. The next support, extremely short term, is the 100-day SMA, which is what I would short it too.
3. 555, while a possible short/resistance line, has been broken multiple times today so I don't see it being a problem as much as one would think.

 Saving the most intriguing for last, Priceline has a couple technical bear signs, so take your pick.
1. I see a near perfect double top formed with highs in mid april and late april. I see 3 bottoms formed and I see an entry exit almost to a tee of what a double top should be. I also see a pullback to the bottom line. The target price point on this would be around $580.
2. If your looking extremely short term, PCLN bounced off the support turned resistance line and could very well be making its way down to the 100-day SMA like AAPL.

Disclosure: Holding June $365 CMG puts

Friday, May 18, 2012

May 18, 2012 - A Look at the Facebook IPO Effect

I wanted to take a look at all of the stocks that are related to Facebook, look at the open price, the price at 11am, price at 11:30am and closing price. Will be updating at each time:

UPDATE: Facebook JUST began trading at 11:30am EST, that is why there is a sudden drop in the related stocks. Fairly surprising to say the least. 

UPDATE: Zynga was halted twice today after losing 10% in less then 5 minutes and subsequently gaining it back on re open.


Stock Name (Symbol)
5/17 Closing Price
5/18 Opening Price
5/18 @ 11:00am EST
5/18 @ 11:35am EST
5/18 Closing Price
Zynga ($ZNGA)
FriendFinder ($FFN)
RenRen ($RENN)
LinkedIn ($LNKD)

Zynga ($ZNGA) -

FriendFinder ($FFN)-


LinkedIn ($LNKD)-

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

May 8th, 2012 - $MTW holdings

$MTW missed earnings badly last week and actually didn't go down at all...until the conference call. When from 14.10 to 13's very quickly.

Following along with this downward channel, it continued downwards. The channel support is at $12

Looking at the market though, $MTW can very well break this channel to the downside in the next few days. If the market bounces, I can see this bounce as well, but the recent downside volume is too big to ignore

Disclosure: Holding $MTW May - 13 puts since before earnings

May 8, 2012 - CMG Short opportunity

There are may technical patterns to use on Chipotle's recent daily chart. The one shown above is a head and shoulders reversal that was just broken today. Height is 40 pts which means possible target is 360 short term.

Looking at support, broke through 50 day last week and next support is 100 day at $385 and 200 day at $350

looking at volume, pretty obvious that there is a lot of volume to the downside in the last 3 weeks and none to the upside. Todays volume is about 60% of average volume in only 2 hours. Still have 5 to go.

Disclosure: Short CMG via May 400 puts since two weeks ago

Monday, April 30, 2012

April 30, 2012 - $NRG Energy Inc. on Watch List

$NRG has been on my watch list for quite some time. Has a very strong channel that it has been trading between since last July. Hit the bottom line 4 times the middle line 3 times and the top line 3 times.

$NRG just broke above its middle trendline Thursday, had a slight pullback but bounce and brokeout today. Price target on this is $18.00.

If breaks above that upper resistance, could be a good hold, otherwise definitely a shortable opportunity.

One thing of Note: Original break through the middle trend line had higher than average volume, pullback had lower than average volume, and breakout today had average volume.

Disclosure: no position in $NRG